Air quality and health benefits from ultra-low emission control policy indicated by continuous emission monitoring: a case study in the Yangtze River Delta region, China

Abstract. To evaluate the improved emission estimates from online monitoring, we applied Models-3/CMAQ (Community Multiscale Air Quality) system to simulate air quality of Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region using two inventories with and without incorporated data continuous monitoring systems (CEMSs) at coal-fired power plants (cases 1 2, respectively). The normalized mean biases (NMBs) between observed simulated hourly concentrations SO2, NO2, O3, PM2.5 in case 2 were ?3.1 %, 56.3 ?19.5 ?1.4 all smaller absolute value than those 8.2 68.9 ?24.6 7.6 respectively. results indicate that incorporation CEMS inventory reduced simulation observation could better reflect actual sources regional pollution. Based on data, changes corresponding health impacts quantified for different implementation levels China's recent “ultra-low” policy. If sector met requirement alone (case 3), differences monthly compared our base policy comparisons, would be less 7 % pollutants. result implies a minor benefit ultra-low control if implemented alone, which is attributed its limited contribution total emissions YRD after years pollution (11 NOX, primary particle matter (PM) was enacted both selected industrial including boilers, cement, iron steel factories 4), 33 %–64 16 %–23 6 %–22 lower, respectively, depending month (January, April, July, October 2015). Combining CMAQ Integrated Exposure Response (IER) model, further estimated 305 deaths 8744 life loss (YLL) attributable exposure avoided region. analogous values much higher, 10 651 316 562 YLL avoided, sectors limits. In order improve reduce human risk effectively, coordinated multiple should implemented, substantially expanded major industries other industry.